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🦘Cacatman's Personal Coronavirus COVID-19 Update Thread

J & J Vaccine - 90% Efficacious
After a single dose vaccination, data showed neutralizing antibodies against COVID-19 were detected in over 90 percent of study participants at Day 29 and 100% of participants aged 18-55 years at Day 57. These neutralizing antibodies remained stable through Day 71, currently the latest timepoint available in this ongoing study, in all participants aged 18-55 years.
 
Pregnancy and COVID-19 Risks
This study followed the outcomes of over 400,000 women in the United States. Only 1.6 percent of the patients were found to have covid-19, a number that is far lower than cohorts of pregnant women who were hospitalized in "hotzones" like New York last spring.

The risk of dying in the hospital among women who gave birth and had covid-19 was around one in 709. For women who gave birth but did not have covid-19, the mortality rate was one in 20,000. That means that covid-19 was associated with a 28-times greater rate of maternal mortality. Heart attacks were also around 25-times more likely among covid-19-positive mothers, but still only occurred in one of 1,000 of such patients. Blood clots, which are a known risk of pregnancy in general, were twice as likely among covid-19-positive women, rising from one in 1,000 to around one in 500. Preeclampsia, a maternal complication that is a precursor to eclampsia (which can cause seizures, liver problems and other complications) was slightly more likely in covid-19-positive mothers. Matching last week's data from Sweden, preterm birth was not associated with covid-19.

 
Variants of the COVID-19 Has Emerged:-
1. South African variant called 501.V2
2. UK "Kent" variant known as 202012/01
3. Brazil variant

The UK and South African virus variants have changes in the spike gene consistent with the possibility that they are more infectious

UK Variant could be up to 70% more infective due to spike protein changes -

The new vaccines should work (as they have a multipronged approach to attacking COVID-19).
 
What is a Clinical Trial? And What Do the Terms Mean?
 
Vaccine Temperature Storage
Pfizer/BioNTech - mRNA requires shipping at -70 degrees C. Once thawed, the vaccine can be refrigerated for 5 days

Moderna - mRNA has to be stored at -20 degrees, but can be stored at 2-8 degrees C and protected from moisture/light until administration and is stable for up to 30 days at that temp.

AstraZeneca/Oxford - -20 degrees C

Novavax - 2-8 degrees C

Two leading COVID-19 vaccine candidates poised for release are mRNA-based. Pfizer and BioNTech’s BNT162b2, the leading candidate in the companies’ BNT162 vaccine program, requires shipping and storage at -70º C. Pfizer and BioNTech—which on Friday requested authorization of BNT162b2 for emergency use—say they have developed temperature-controlled thermal shippers using dry ice to maintain temperature conditions of between -70º C and +10º C.

The shippers can be used as temporary storage units for 15 days by refilling with dry ice. Once thawed, the vaccine can be refrigerated for five days. Each shipper contains a GPS-enabled thermal sensor to track the location and temperature of each vaccine shipment across their pre-set routes leveraging Pfizer’s broad distribution network.

By contrast, Moderna says its mRNA-based vaccine mRNA-1273—which showed 94.5% effectiveness in early Phase III data—“must be stored at 2º to 8º C in a secure area with limited access (unblinded personnel only) and protected from moisture and light until it is prepared for administration,” according to the protocol for its 30,000+ patient Phase III COVE trial (NCT04470427).

Moderna recently announced a longer shelf life for mRNA-1273, saying the vaccine remained stable at 2º to 8º C for 30 days (up from an earlier estimate of just seven days). Moderna added that mRNA-1273 remains stable at -20º C for up to six months, “and at room temperature for up to 12 hours.”

AstraZeneca’s vaccine candidate AZD1222, which is being co-developed with the University of Oxford and a spinout, also allows for storage and shipping at -20º C. AstraZeneca said today that AZD1222 generated positive Phase III efficacy ranging from 62% when given to 2,741 participants as two full doses at least one month apart—to 90% when given to 8,895 participants as a half dose, followed by a full dose at least one month apart. A total of 131 COVID-19 cases were reported in the interim analysis.

Novavax’s NVX-CoV2373 requires shipping and storage at 2º to 8º C.

“We expect the product to be viable a minimum of six months at 2º to 8º C, and at least 24 hours at room temperature,” Novavax spokesperson Edna Kaplan said. Novavax plans to distribute NVX-CoV2373 in multidose vials, with each vial containing ten doses. “The vaccine is ready-to-use and does not require admixing or reconstitution. It can be delivered using any standard needle and syringe, including those routinely used in vaccination programs,” she said.


At room temperature, the Pfizer vaccine can only be stored for 2 hours, the Moderna vaccine for 12 hours.

 
Moderna Vaccine
Moderna's vaccine is 94.5% effective and doesn't need -70 degrees C storage like Pfizers.

Ten cases of anaphylaxis and over 100 cases of severe allergic reactions were reported following administration of the first dose of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, but nearly all were among those with a history of allergic reactions, researchers found.

Rate of anaphylaxis was 2.5 cases per million Moderna doses, or 10 cases following about 4 million doses, which is higher than the widely reported 1.3 cases per million following an influenza vaccine. A prior report focusing mostly on the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine found 21 cases of anaphylaxis following about 1.9 doses, or a rate of 11.1 cases per million through December 23.

Moderna vaccine prevented two-thirds of all infections, including asymptomatic ones.
 
Vitamin D
Is a hormone and can enter the cell membrane and into the nucleus. It can change the way the cell behaves.

Not just involved in Calcium regulation. Fat soluble vitamin => enters nucleus! Can prevent transcription of RNA.

2 ways to get Vitamin D:-
1. Eat it! Fish oil, mushrooms, egg yolks, red meat
2. From the sun - UVB penetrates the dermis which converts 7-dehydrocholesterol into Previtamin D3 -> liver where the 25 hydroxyl is add to the molecule.

25 hydroxyl vit d is fat soluble and stored in the fat. When this is needed, it is converted by the immune system to the active form 1,25 (OH)2 D OR it can be converted to the active form in the kidneys. It is used for metabolism of calcium

Major cause of Vitamin D deficiency is inadequate exposure to sunlight (or living above/below the 35th parallel).
Inverse association of serum vit D and BMI

Patients with kidney disease (nephrotic syndrome) lose vit D3

For more than a century, vit D has been suggested to increase the susceptibility to infection.

Increased RTIs in children with rickets.

Vit D may stimulate the immune system e.g. monocytes/neutrophils.

Deficient - <30 ng/ml = < 75 nmol/L
Optimal 51-70/126-175
Too high >100/>250

As you get older, you are less able to produce vit d via the skin (2 fold decrease).

White skin produces more vit d per same exposure than dark skin

Because vit D is stored in fat, then being fat effectively decreases free vit d3

10,000 German patients. 50-75 yo 15 year followup
> 50 ng/ml - better respiratory mortality survival

Meta analysis
Vit D supplementation prevented respiratory infections
25 Randomised control trials

COVID 19

17 million patients with 10,926 covid deaths
Higher in age are more likely to die
Male higher risk
Obesity is a risk
Darker skin races increases risk
Current smokers have lower risk. Thought to be because nicotine is anti-inflammatory agent. Also, nitric oxide is a vasodilator.

Looking at countries/populations. Moving away from the equator, populations increase covid mortality.

7,807 patients
Majority of patients had <30 with positive COVID-19

Vit D levels <75 nmol/L had a 1.45 chance of getting infection, and 2 times more likely to be hospitalised

52,000 matched people
Increased COVID infection rates in men and women related to low vit d levels

200,000 patients
Vit D levels inversely related to being positive with levels ie >50 ng/ml

Therefore, there is an ASSOCIATION with low Vit D3 and COVID morbidity and mortality

study of 240 patients with 200,000iu on admission to hospital (did increase vit d rates)
Increasing vit d on admission to hospital didn't change clinical outcome including mortality or ventilator days. But regular doses work better overall.

Shade study - 40 covid positive patients -> gave 60,000 iu for 7 days
Checked and found that
62.5% vs 20.8% were COVID -ive by day 21
Fibrinogen was significantly decreased in vit d group

One study showed 21% fatality rate in low vit d patients vs 3.1% fatality rate in normal vit d levels.

Recommendations are
0-6 months 1000 iu
6m - 1 yr 1500 Iu/d
1 yr - 3 year - 2500 iu/d
4-8 y - 3000 iu/day
8+ 4000 iu/day is upper limit for supplementation for vit d

Vit D toxicity
- very rare. 150 ng/ml = 375 nmol/L to be toxic

One of the least toxic fat toxic vitamins

20,000 samples of vit d, only 1 had 364 ng/ml (910 nmol/l) was diagnosed with hypercalcaemia

Another study reported healthy adults receiving 50,000 iu vit d2 every 2 weeks for 6 years had concentrations of 40-60 ng/ml (100-150 nmol/l) with no evidence of vit d toxicity.

Canadians took 20,000 iu of vit d3 per day and had increases up to 60 ng/ml (150 nmol/l) but without any evidence of toxicity.

Body weight and how it affects vit d.
17,614 patients
Supplementation per 1000 iu increases it to plateau ie. by about 4.8 ng/ml. but by 15,000-20,000, only raised it by 0.4 ng/ml. ie. non linear relationship

normal bmi <25
overweight 26-30 3ng/ml lower usually - should take 1.5 XS amount as much vit d
obesity 30+ are 8 ng/ml lower usually - should take 3.0X amount of vit d

should try to get above 50 nmol/l.

Sarcoid or renal patients/other granulomatous diseases should exercise care.

Prevention - Vitamin D
82.2% of hospitalized patients were vitamin D deficient, while only 47.2% of healthy people were deficient.

Vitamin D strengthens parts of the immune system that fight viruses, like white blood cells, and can also help quell cytokine storms. That's when the immune system overreacts, flooding the bloodstream with messenger proteins that lead the body to attack its own cells rather than just the virus. Many patients with severe COVID-19 cases experience cytokine storms, which can destroy lung tissue and cause fatal pneumonia.

How It Works
Vitamin D - lipid soluble vitamin. Needs UV to convert the cholesterol derivative to Vit D. Body then converts it to the active form.

vit D > 60 ng/ml (150 mol/L) gives a non-linear decrease in all cardiovascular and cancer deaths in patients. Prospective cohort study in 365,530 patients.

Bit D and it's derivatives direct antiviral activity by disrupting viral envelopes and altering viability of host target cells. It also helps helper t-cells which helps combat COVID-19, as well as B-lymphocytes which produce plasma cells -> antibodies.

Low levels of Vitamin D in winter has an independent association with incidence and severity of respiratory illness. Having levels at 38 ng/ml, 95 mol/L or more resulted in halving the risk of respiratory infection.

Worldwide, 40% of all people have < 20 ng/mL (50 mol/L) and 60% < 30 ng/mL (75 mol/L)


Low Vitamin D Levels Predictive of Worse Morbidity/Mortality
Vitamin D deficiency markedly increases the chance of having severe disease after infection with SARS Cov-2. The intensity of inflammatory response is also higher in vitamin D deficient COVID-19 patients. This all translates to increase morbidity and mortality in COVID-19 patients who are deficient in vitamin D. Keeping the current COVID-19 pandemic in view authors recommend administration of vitamin D supplements to population at risk for COVID-19.


190,000 patients positive vs 25 hydroxy Vit D levels
When levels were 40-50 ng/ml - lowest levels of COVID-19 rate
Relationship is true for all sub populations - ie. race, sex
SARS-CoV-2 positivity rates associated with circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels

Armenia Study
A greater proportion of hospitalized patients had levels below 12 ng/mL in comparison to the national average. In comparing those with vitamin D levels below 12 ng/mL to those with vitamin D levels above 12 ng/mL, there was no difference in terms of mean age, BMI, duration of hospitalization, or days requiring supplemental oxygen, according to the study authors.

Vitamin D Bolus On Admission Not Helpful

Low 25(OH)D levels on admission are associated with COVID-19 disease stage and mortality.

In this cohort study of 4638 individuals with a measured vitamin D level in the year before undergoing COVID-19 testing, the risk of having positive results in Black individuals was 2.64-fold greater with a vitamin D level of 30 to 39.9 ng/mL than a level of 40 ng/mL or greater and decreased by 5% per 1-ng/mL increase in level among individuals with a level of 30 ng/mL or greater. There were no statistically significant associations of vitamin D levels with COVID-19 positivity rates in White individuals.

Cholecalciferol supplementation (n = 108,343) was associated with slight protection from SARS-CoV2 infection (n = 4352 [4.0%] vs 9142/216,686 [4.2%] in controls; HR 0.95 [CI 95% 0.91–0.98], p = 0.004). Patients on cholecalciferol treatment achieving 25OHD levels ≥ 30 ng/ml had lower risk of SARS-CoV2 infection, lower risk of severe COVID-19 and lower COVID-19 mortality than unsupplemented 25OHD-deficient patients (56/9474 [0.6%] vs 96/7616 [1.3%]; HR 0.66 [CI 95% 0.46–0.93], p = 0.018). Calcifediol use (n = 134,703) was not associated with reduced risk of SARS-CoV2 infection or mortality in the whole cohort. However, patients on calcifediol treatment achieving serum 25OHD levels ≥ 30 ng/ml also had lower risk of SARS-CoV2 infection, lower risk of severe COVID-19, and lower COVID-19 mortality compared to 25OHD-deficient patients not receiving vitamin D supplements (88/16276 [0.5%] vs 96/7616 [1.3%]; HR 0.56 [CI 95% 0.42–0.76], p < 0.001).

Conclusions​

In this large, population-based study, we observed that patients supplemented with cholecalciferol or calcifediol achieving serum 25OHD levels ≥ 30 ng/ml were associated with better COVID-19 outcomes.

Good evidence in India's SHADE study and Spain's calciferol study.
 
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Most COVID-19 is Spread by 18-24 yo (USA)

57 percent of those new cases occurred in people 18 to 24 yo.

“It has been reported that mitigation behaviors, such as social distancing, wearing masks, and avoiding crowded spaces, is lowest among people between the ages of 18 and 29,” he told Healthline.

“They’re more likely to be asymptomatic and can easily unknowingly transmit the virus to others,” Russell said. “Many young adults also know that their risk of lethal infection or developing long-term health problems as a result of the virus is very low, which decreases their anxiety about getting sick and lends them less reason to adhere to COVID-19 recommended practices.”

Recent hospitalizations among children for COVID-19 were nearly 9 times higher than last spring.
 

Covid-19 variants: will the reliability of tests be affected?

“I don’t think PCR will ever be an issue, because with PCR you pick the most conserved areas of the genome of a virus. You don’t go for something like the spike region which binds to receptors because that will change, as this is where antibodies will bind, but something that is conserved. The current PCR that we have doesn’t even discriminate between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2, because so much is conserved between the two viruses that they are 80% the same.”
 
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